Live markets: Bitcoin not fully out of danger as Trump warns of further Iran strikes

Bitcoin prices remain uncertain as US President Donald Trump warns of further strikes against Iran. In Geneva, Switzerland, on June 19, a historic signing is set to take place, which may determine the cryptocurrency's next move. The recent interim deal between the US and Iran to halt the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has had a significant impact on the global market. Copper prices climbed as much as 1.4% following the announcement, while aluminum is up 13% since the war began in late February. However, bitcoin's reaction has been more cautious, waiting for the June 19 signing before making any significant moves.

The divergence between bitcoin and other industrial metals like copper and aluminum can be explained by their different market drivers. Copper, for instance, trades on growth expectations and supply routes, which have been severely impacted by the war in the Persian Gulf. The severing of supply routes has led to a significant increase in copper prices, with the metal gaining about 4% since the war began.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has been trained by two failed deals to be more cautious in its price movements. The ceasefire in April collapsed, and US strikes broke a second truce on June 9, leading to a significant decline in bitcoin prices. As a result, the cryptocurrency is waiting for the June 19 signing in Switzerland before pricing in a potential third deal.

The channel that would actually move crypto runs through central banks, which have a significant impact on the global economy. Cheaper oil, resulting from the interim deal, softens the inflation pressure that kept the Fed on hold and pushed the Bank of Japan toward a hike at tomorrow's meeting. Less hawkish policy means less carry-trade unwind risk, which is the weight that has pressed on crypto all month.

The implications of the US-Iran conflict on the global economy are far-reaching. The war has led to a significant increase in oil prices, which has had a ripple effect on the entire economy. The increase in oil prices has led to higher production costs, which have been passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This has led to a decrease in consumer spending, which has had a negative impact on the economy.

The impact of the conflict on the global economy is not limited to oil prices. The war has also led to a significant increase in uncertainty, which has made it difficult for businesses to make investment decisions. This has led to a decrease in business investment, which has had a negative impact on the economy.

In conclusion, the US-Iran conflict has had a significant impact on the global economy, with far-reaching implications for businesses and consumers. The conflict has led to an increase in oil prices, uncertainty, and a decrease in business investment, all of which have had a negative impact on the economy. The June 19 signing in Switzerland will be closely watched by investors and businesses, as it has the potential to bring an end to the conflict and restore stability to the global economy.

The role of central banks in the conflict cannot be overstated. The Fed and the Bank of Japan have a significant impact on the global economy, and their policies have the potential to either exacerbate or mitigate the effects of the conflict. The Fed's decision to keep interest rates low has helped to soften the impact of the conflict on the economy, while the Bank of Japan's decision to hike interest rates has had a negative impact on the economy.

The impact of the conflict on bitcoin prices is also significant. The cryptocurrency has been highly volatile in recent months, with prices fluctuating wildly in response to news of the conflict. The June 19 signing has the potential to bring an end to the volatility and restore stability to the cryptocurrency market.

In the short term, the impact of the conflict on bitcoin prices will depend on the outcome of the June 19 signing. If the signing is successful, and the conflict comes to an end, it is likely that bitcoin prices will increase. However, if the signing is unsuccessful, and the conflict continues, it is likely that bitcoin prices will decrease.

In the long term, the impact of the conflict on bitcoin prices will depend on the overall state of the global economy. If the conflict leads to a significant increase in uncertainty and a decrease in business investment, it is likely that bitcoin prices will decrease. However, if the conflict leads to a significant increase in demand for safe-haven assets, it is likely that bitcoin prices will increase.

Overall, the US-Iran conflict has had a significant impact on the global economy, with far-reaching implications for businesses and consumers. The conflict has led to an increase in oil prices, uncertainty, and a decrease in business investment, all of which have had a negative impact on the economy. The June 19 signing in Switzerland has the potential to bring an end to the conflict and restore stability to the global economy, and its outcome will be closely watched by investors and businesses.