El Niño under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say
"Extreme weather events are expected to intensify, threatening global food supplies and economies. Record-high temperatures are likely in 2027."
US scientists have declared the arrival of El Niño, a natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that El Niño conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months.
El Niño's impact is felt globally, with extreme weather events such as flooding, drought, and wildfires expected to intensify. The phenomenon is characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific, which can have devastating effects on global food supplies and economies. NOAA's declaration is not a surprise, as forecasters have expected this warming phase after the cooler "sister" pattern, La Niña, ended earlier this year.
The current El Niño event is expected to be particularly strong, with some forecasts suggesting it could end up as a "super" El Niño, rivaling the strongest events ever recorded. According to NOAA's June outlook, there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, which would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. The three strongest events since then have been in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.
The implications of a strong El Niño event are far-reaching. Extreme weather events are expected to intensify, threatening global food supplies and economies. Record-high temperatures are likely in 2027, with the current El Niño event riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming. This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change.
Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, warned that the current El Niño is a major concern. "We do need to worry about the impacts," he said. "The current El Niño is... riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming. This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change."
A very strong El Niño typically lifts global air temperatures by around 0.2C, releasing heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere. That extra blast now lands on a world that is already setting records. The year 2024 - the warmest on record - was boosted by an El Niño that was not even especially strong. And despite the cooling drag of a La Niña event, 2025 still came in as the third warmest year on record, hotter even than the super El Niño year of 2016.
The disruption caused by El Niño is felt most sharply in the tropics. Flooding is common in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, and can reach parts of East Africa, Central Asia, and the southern United States. At the same time, the risk of drought and wildfire rises across much of Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America - hitting agriculture and global food stocks. El Niño also tends to have a significant impact on global economies, with the World Bank estimating that a strong El Niño event can cost the global economy tens of billions of dollars.
As the world prepares for the impacts of El Niño, scientists are urging caution and vigilance. "Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes," NOAA warned. The agency is working closely with international partners to monitor the situation and provide updates on the El Niño event.
In conclusion, the declaration of El Niño by US scientists is a significant development, with far-reaching implications for global weather patterns, food supplies, and economies. As the world prepares for the impacts of this natural phenomenon, it is essential to remember that El Niño is not just a natural event, but also a reminder of the urgent need to address climate change. With record-high temperatures expected in 2027, the world must come together to mitigate the effects of El Niño and work towards a more sustainable future.
